Friday 18 January 2008

Markets confused... aren't we all

There has been quite a lot of movement in the shares of various of the major Zambian mine-owners since Friday's speech announcing a new tax regime. This is partly a result of confusion and inaccurate reporting over what the President's speech actually meant. A UBS research note published on Monday included the prediction that the Government’s new bill will increase the corporate tax rate on mining companies from 25% to 30% and hike royalty rates from 0.6% to 3.0%. But that's exactly the regime that Finance Minister Magande announced would apply to companies not holding Development Agreements last year, and which he suggested would be applied across the board once re-negotiations were completed with those holding contracts. I think it's very difficult to read reports of the speech this way, given its discussion of a new windfall tax, amongst other things.
There is also a lengthy news item on the President's speech and the background on the mining industry in the Government-owned Times of Zambia.
I don't think it adds anything to the original article in The Post.

Meanwhile, opposition Patriotic Front MPs, who represent all seats held on the Copperbelt have had a chance to debate the President's speech. Government-controlled newspaper 'The Times of Zambia'
reports a broad welcome for the announcement (it would). However, it also reflects confusion, reporting questions from MPs about how new income would be spent, how much would stay in the local areas, and whether there should be more transparency around the content of the new agreements of legislation.


Finally, the Lusaka Times also reports further aggressive noises from the Environmental Council of Zambia, which has really been upping its publicity in the last month or so, suggesting a whole new approach to regulation in Zambia.

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